IR here are… Show more . “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. christopher joye. “@cjoye Well this RBA info has finally caught up with Alan Kohler I photo’d the tv last yr & kept the dates visible I added words he was saying to the slides Check out the dates! August & October LAST YEAR!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%. . @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. 1. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. There was only one way to go. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. 92. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. Interesting. Hard to start a business or buy your first home if you can’t borrow money anywhere”“Aussie house prices moving sideways in February month to date, which is interesting. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. 1. . )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 11. GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. Retweets. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. Last Friday was a normal day for us: we did about $450m of trades, and I actively directed ~$300m of them. . 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. . 1%. com. In this conversation. “Why is Bitcoin back down at US$22k?”“@cjoye You should dissect Aus equities vs S&P500. 5% pa, or 2. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Just think your narrow focus on interest rates as the main driver of house prices and that prices will fall 30% is consistent with many of you other views. No wonder RBA is slowing down. 1. Log in What does the Credit Suisse bail-in of its hybrids mean for Aussie bank hybrids? @cjoye Back in 2017 I wrote about a small number of Tier 2 and AT1 structures from Genworth + ME Bank that did not convert to equity (ie, went straight to write-off) and which could invert the capital structure hierarchy - predicting a situation where shareholders would push for AT1 or T2 write-offs to minimise their losses, just as happened. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. 1%, bringing total decline to 6. So presumably brought their first home. “First housing bear in my cross-hairs: UBS concedes yesterday, "Looking fwd, we had expected home prices could drop 10%, but it could be smaller now. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". 10:21 PM · Jul 8, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone. Sydney (+1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in Another story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. com. 1KWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Show more". 1:56 AM · Jul 29, 2022 · Twitter Web App. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. Found. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. Fun interview with nabtrade on bond markets. @cjoye. I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. Aug 16. 6%mom) prices led the increase. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. Embarrassingly wrong. christopher [email protected] @DrCameronMurray: Has anyone pulled together a list of all the wrong predictions about the housing market from mid-2020? If I recall, predictions of 30% price falls were common. Sydney is off 10. @cjoye. First time I've properly suited up in a long while. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. . @cjoye. CoreLogic: Australian home values officially record the largest decline on record would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . “Good morning!”In this conversation. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. . Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. 1. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. @Dante57112893. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. 65% in November. Even with yields down. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Fantastic lunch event with Chris Joye @cjoye and Coolibah Capital today in Perth. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. Stock up 18%. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. The Australian Financial. 2m are customer assets. 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. . May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. Conversation“@cjoye who would have thought lending money to a government with a printing press that practically can't default would result in potentially the 2nd largest bank collapse in US history 😄”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users The data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. And homes are still priced above Covid levels. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. "We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You actually charge people a fee for that performance?”“@KirilRuvinsky @cjoye People are away in Sydney, this Aussie day turned into a long weekend, my wife works in circular quay and there were 5 people on her floor at work! People are still spending and it appears that less people under 35 have a mortgage these days, rising unemployment is the only key”Imaging if mums&dads can directly access to 6. @cjoye In an apartment complex of 100, it only takes 2 or 3 sales to mark down the whole 100. macrobusiness. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. FML 🫠”“@cjoye Too corrupt and too much poverty. au “GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. Likes. There were good re“@Sporticus13 @cjoye @TheKouk I was wondering the other day how much of Wayne Swan’s unfulfilled budget surplus was the result of Koukie’s crystal ball. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. Discerning Coins for example is a new way of collecting coins - using the blockchain! Chris, we've talked about this. ”“Yep. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The wage costs for businesses producing products is far too high and can only be addressed by greater productivity, which means fewer workers. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. 4% this time last yr. Log inAnother story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. com. 8 per cent, it would mean that purchasing power has been eroded by a total of 33 per cent since the RBA kicked off this cycle in May last year. What’s the result?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. Log in. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Master Your Unstoppable Mindset. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. Interesting. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. Retweets. Log in. 9. com. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. Log in. By Huobi announced $18. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users “Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of underlying inflation based on a truncated monthly CPI. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09“RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…”christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. . Replying to. Interest rates have soared, but commercial property values have barely moved. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. christopher joye on Twitter: "Credit Suisse trying to squeeze. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. “The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index dropped 8% in February, to 62. 2 days ago. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye yep, thats the point. @cjoye Aug 6, 2022 22pc and back in 2020 - the issue with Ukraine is there is very limited data on it as a country statistically because it was only created in the early 1990s. & 50% are admin. @cjoye. Log in. Sydney prices have fallen by 11. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up. @parrapower2022 @solo_dio_ @rabbit_wealth @AvidCommentator @BikoKonstantin1 @Aus__Property @rabbit_wealth @justthink1 @cjoye . Quote Tweet. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . Try and think of the whole story not the macro people want you to hear and fear”In this conversation. christopher joye @cjoye. Why are they silent on the stock NFLX performance???”“Westpac/MI Australian Consumer Confidence now lower than GFC levels--and aside from March 2020, the lowest since 1990. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. There were good reasons for very low rates (pre-covid) and those reasons haven’t gone away. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye plenty of illiquidity in the big super funds non-listed assets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ALT. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. Funny thing is many keep saying it hasn't crashed yet. @cjoye @PodcastFear. Likes. christopher joye on Twitter. Expect a global recession, continuing asset price declines, and waves of defaults, writes cjoye. Huobi announced $18. “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. 9% vs 56. I am not a house price bull. These people need equity Plenty of people get paid goid money a d know very little of what they do The lesson is the herd mentality is alive and well On the way uo! All the way down Probability market crash epic proportions Going to be like the car market but even more acute We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You've reached your limit when it comes to tweeting about bitcoin being under $20k. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. States need fiscal revolution to avoid debt bomb - our analysis on NSW and Victoria. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ConversationSee new Tweets. ”Log in. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ConversationIn this conversation. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Morning!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Job cuts over 18mo. christopher joye. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22 Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. This will. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in. christopher joye. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1%. A 30year investment for most. 6% for one year but if taken from the peak in Sept 21 its -30% plus. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. “The great regime change: growth and cheap money are dead of risky assets ‘living in a parallel universe’ - A recession may be precisely the jolt lackadaisical Millennials require to lift their game. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. au. ↑ Joye, Christopher. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722 Embed Tweet. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. The stunning incident occurred in the waters off Werri Beach in New South Wales on Sunday and was captured on video. . 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. However, the. It's very unstable at the street level. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. *Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. Log in. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested [email protected]! From US2yr notes to the Russell2000 and Peleton, Netflix, AfterPay etc etc etc. They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. We reap what we sow. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Modi had highest voters support among all democratic countries! As Paul Keating repeatedly pointed out, Albo is just a sucker!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Both of which disproportionately affect the bottom 50% of households. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. . @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. 76% from 0. Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash bit. 4%. Visit cjoye's profile on Zillow to find ratings and reviews. Sign upLog in. christopher joye on Twitter. The quarterly pace of decline accelerated to. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5% plus 1% productivity. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye @ALeighMP @Charlton_AB @DanielMulinoMP @AlboMP @JEChalmers Genuine question/thought. and @Johnkehoe23. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. 6%mom) prices led the increase. Captain Slapstick AC AO AM OAM AK @CaptSlapstick · 6h. Our globally unique War Lab put 74% probability on military conflict between China/Taiwan and a 45% chance of US-China conflict erupting over next decade based on data up to 2020. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. Replying to. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. Melb also up: 67. I doubt the rise over the previous Q was sustainable, given the reduction in borrowing power. See new Tweetschristopher joye on Twitter: "RT @eurekareport: On Talking Finance this week with @AlanKohler: central banks face a longer, harder task to get inflation down; dodging an Australian recession; an inflationary budget & opposition in the opposition ft. Crypto is toxic”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. 16 May 2023 00:02:27“Aussie house prices fall another >1% in November, total loss now 7. See charts below for the latest daily index data for Syd/Melb @cjoye banks are throwing everything to keep the arrears off the books, giving repayment holidays, turning loans into 30-40 year mortgages interest free, & CBA anyone ahead on their loan schedule are getting repayment discounts! @cjoye I think you’re missing a factor from your interest rate property price calculator, how many investors were using a rising market to facilitate/service their loans, buy new properties& hide some properties under company trusts to hide their debt positions. 1 – weakest reading since the depths of the early-1990s recession, Hassan said. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. "@wmdglasgow Yes, @cjoye is one of our best journalists" (Tweet) – via Twitter. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 0%), Melbourne (-7. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). “@KurtMickan @cjoye If the current conditions remain I would expect prices to fall. “@cjoye Watched The Big Short again last night - I fear the can kicking is going to end soon and we will have our very own subprime moment. Sign up“@cjoye People keep in mind the huge upswing the housing market had pre covid. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. Sign up Day of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. Given the number of markets that have had this set up and tanked. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 75% bonds or 5,6% annuity products without losing any skin to the middleman, market would be below 4,000 point instantly! Once BoJ st“Mortgage stress to rise as RBA flags risk of higher rates in. Bank of M&D or other exogenous injections can only go so far. afr. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . Conversation. It would not suprise me if the government introduces 'targeted support' which ends up pumping the market for a…”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. Redirecting to /user/cjoye/. It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . Sign upIn this conversation. Log in.